Why seasonal retail is all blending together

We’re about to enter the most wonderful time of the year for retail. Or we might have been in the past.

While the Christmas season is still the most important for many retailers, it’s no longer confined to just the months of November and December.

In recent years, there’s been a consistent trend of consumers spreading their seasonal spending out over a longer period of time – and not just at Christmas. Throughout the year, the calendar lines between seasonal retail are getting blurry as retailers target key holidays earlier and earlier.

This shift in approach means that Christmas merchandise hits the shelves alongside Halloween goods, splitting seasonal aisles into two.

At the same time, retailers are also pulling seasonal products earlier in a bid to reduce leftover stock and reductions. This is the reason why come Easter Sunday there aren’t any Easter eggs left on sale for last minute buyers. It’s not that they’ve all been sold, it’s that the retailer has already moved on to summer promotions.

 

 

Consumers Are Spreading Their Spending

Remember that Black Friday – traditionally the start of the US Christmas retail period – is at the very end of November. This year there’s less than one month between Black Friday and the big day itself. Yet, it’s almost impossible to imagine the majority of today’s consumers waiting until just weeks before to do all of their Christmas shopping.

Research from Quantum Metric found that 29% of UK consumers had already started shopping for the 2024 festive season in June. 22% said they planned to start in July or August. That adds up to a lot of consumers.

It’s the same story in the US. In Deloitte’s recent holiday retail survey, 78% of US retail execs said they felt that earlier promotions are pulling sales forward. A summer survey by Gartner also found that 32% of US consumers planned to start holiday shopping between July and October.

A recent survey of US consumers by Mars Wrigley and IPSOS found that on average, consumers who celebrate Halloween are planning 5.2 weeks in advance. Some are even planning closer to 7 or 8 weeks in advance.

Some of this behaviour is motivated by cost. Consumers still want to enjoy key holidays and seasonal events and spreading the cost over a longer period of time is one way of doing that while the cost of living is high.

But there are two other key reasons for expanded seasonal shopping periods – anticipation and pleasure. Consumers who enjoy a particular holiday or series of holidays often end up buying products earlier as a form of anticipation for the main event. Even those who aren’t super fans can find themselves caught up in the excitement and making related purchases.

There’s also a long-term consumer shift towards wanting experiences and the opportunity to connect with loved ones and make memories. Seasonal holidays provide the perfect environment for these moments with many consumers getting pleasure out of planning and preparing for them.

 

 

Early Seasonal Retail Can Increase Sales

Brands and retailers are fuelling this early buying behaviour through in-store and online activities. Amazon’s Prime Day events in July and October help drive spikes in activity ahead of key seasonal events. Starbucks launched its autumn menu on August 22nd after giving Starbucks Loyalty members two weeks of early access to its pumpkin spice drinks. Nike has just announced a Valentine’s themed Air Jordan 3 design for next year.

In October, Chanel launched a Christmas pop-up in luxury London department store Harrods. Over in the US, Anthropologie ran its own Holiday House pop-up in New York in September. These pop-ups aren’t just for the dedicated early seasonal shoppers, but they also act as real-life inspiration spaces that get consumers into the festive headspace sooner.

This is one of the key reasons why retailers are bringing out seasonal products earlier and earlier. Seeing these products – especially outside of the normal retail window – helps prime consumers to buy. This can increase their overall spend, particularly in terms of spontaneous and unplanned purchases, because the customer may not have actually thought through what they want and need to buy for each holiday.

If the shopper is buying consumable products, it’s possible that they will end up eating them before the holiday they’re intended for, which drives further spending as well. Gift budgets may also be increased – consciously and unconsciously – by early purchasing because consumers may continue to see other gift ideas as they approach the actual holiday.

Spending can also increase on homeware and decorations as consumers look to recreate the inspirational settings that they see online and in-store.

Starting promotions earlier for different holidays does mean more overlap between campaigns but also allows retailers to capitalise on traffic driven from one seasonal event to sell another. 

 

Risk of Consumer Overload

However, retailers do need to be careful not to put customers off seasonal spending through overload. Too many different holiday promotions at the same time can reduce or split spending. For example, directing someone’s attention from Halloween to Christmas could mean that they don’t spend as much on the former – even though they would be guaranteed to already spend on the latter later in the year.

If consumers see holiday products too early – think Christmas in spring – or for the majority of the year, they can become desensitised to them. They’re no longer primed to buy with any urgency because they can get the same products at almost any time.

Consumers can also be put off purchases that they would usually consider a treat if they are overexposed to them. If they’re buying and eating mince pies at the end of summer, then by the time the Christmas period comes along they may be fed up with them.

Likewise, if customers are constantly bombarded with email marketing or offers for seasons with lots of crossover they may become unengaged. Emarketer reported that 67% of US consumers expect to have holiday marketing fatigue by November 1.

In this case, brands should think about the seasonal events that matter most to their core customer and drive the highest spend and prioritise them.

 

Buying Early Guarantees Stock

Shopping outside of the traditional seasonal retail calendar has practical benefits for both consumers and retailers too.

The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on supply chains has left a deep impression on customers, which is helping influence their decisions to buy earlier to secure the things they really want.

The ‘drop’ model of limited edition, small volume products that has been popularised by streetwear brands has also helped influence consumer buying habits. Shoppers can no longer guarantee that the things they see will still be available in the future, which creates a trigger to shop in the moment.

For retailers, early seasonal purchasing can help them plan and manage their inventory better, including having time to respond to jumps in demand. Further supply chain disruption also can’t be ruled out in the future – including from major weather events – so a longer buying window can help reduce the risk of issues.

 

Part of a Wider Shift in Consumer Behaviour

The blending together of seasonal retail may be the consequence of a wider shift in customer behaviour which sees consumers in constant shopping mode.

In the past consumers made dedicated shopping trips to buy specific things they wanted or needed. With the evolution of social media and online shopping, we now live in a world where consumers are always primed and ready to shop. Everything we see and hear is a point of potential inspiration when you can find and buy whatever it is in moments from your smartphone.

This tendency is also transferring to seasonal buying habits with consumers now buying for key events whenever they see the ideal gift or decoration. It’s even helping accelerate the blending of seasonal holidays thanks to social media trends, such as Summerween - an unofficial holiday that takes place in the summer but uses the aesthetics of Halloween and autumn.

Just don’t expect everyone to stop complaining about the early arrival of Christmas goods in stores.